TL;DR
- Over $2.27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, potentially triggering short-term volatility.
- The put-to-call ratios for BTC (0.65) and ETH (0.48) indicate a mostly optimistic sentiment in the market.
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Short-term speculative demand has dropped by 66.7%, which could increase price pressure.
Today, the cryptocurrency market faces a pivotal event as $2.27 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire. According to data from Deribit, 19,364 Bitcoin contracts and 141,185 Ethereum contracts are scheduled for expiration, with notional values of $1.81 billion and $459 million, respectively. BTC options have a put-to-call ratio of 0.65 and a maximum pain point of $97,000, reflecting optimistic sentiment, though the current price ($94,000) remains below this benchmark. For Ethereum, the put-to-call ratio stands at 0.48, with a maximum pain point of $3,450, while its current price hovers around $3,250. These metrics suggest prices could move toward these levels in an attempt to maximize losses on open positions.
A recent report from Glassnode highlights a significant drop in “hot capital,” referring to short-term speculative activity. This has decreased by 66.7% since December, from $96.2 billion to $32 billion. This reduction in liquidity and activity reflects lower confidence among short-term traders, which could heighten volatility as large trades might have a more pronounced impact on prices.
Market Impact: Breakout or Consolidation?
The market has shown signs of bearish pressure. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has recorded a slight 0.17% increase, reaching $94,000, but faces challenges in maintaining critical levels. Ethereum, meanwhile, has dropped 1.17%, with its current price at $3,250. Altcoins like Cardano (+0.99%) have shown some strength, but others such as Binance Coin (-0.36%), XRP (-1.45%), and Solana (-2.41%) reflect a general market pullback.
Despite the uncertainty, analysts are divided. Some anticipate Bitcoin may break upward toward its maximum pain point of $97,000, while others warn of further declines if it loses the key support at $92,000. Additionally, rumors of potential massive Bitcoin sales by the U.S. government and concerns over inflation continue to fuel market anxiety.
This massive expiration could define the market’s next move, with a focus on whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can hold critical levels or if current conditions will deepen the ongoing correction.
